As of now EURUSD move in between the 200 SMA (black line) and 100 SMA (Red Line). Near term support 1.1628.
Monday, August 11, 2025
Gold H4 chart Analysis
After last week Friday non-directional move as highlight by square blue box, it seem today the gold price breakout from the square box and try to move lower the 100 period SMA. A new candle open below the 3350.00 level can be a bearish sentiment begin.
Sunday, August 10, 2025
Gold Futures COT Report Analysis (as of 5 Aug 2025)
Key Observations:
Open Interest & Market Activity
Total Open Interest: 449,647 contracts (↑ 14,388 from prior week)
Number of Traders: 312 (indicating moderate institutional participation)
Market Sentiment: Managed Money (large speculators) holds a strong net long position, while Swap Dealers (often banks) are heavily net short.
Positioning Breakdown:
Managed Money (Large Speculators)
Long Positions: 186,304 (↑ 15,386) – 41.4% of OI (dominant bullish force)
Short Positions: 32,317 (↑ 4,365) – 7.2% of OI
Net Long: +153,987 contracts (bullish bias)
Interpretation: Hedge funds & big traders are aggressively betting on higher gold prices.
Swap Dealers (Banks & Institutions)
Short Positions: 273,003 (↑ 22,945) – 69.7% of OI (very bearish)
Long Positions: 36,874 (↑ 2,275) – 8.2% of OI
Net Short: -236,129 contracts (strong hedging/professional selling)
Interpretation: Banks are hedging or expecting downside, possibly due to Fed policy or USD strength.
Producers/Merchants (Commercial Hedgers)
Short Positions: 55,777 (↑ 4,687) – 12.4% of OI
Long Positions: 21,760 (↑ 19,465) – 4.8% of OI
Net Short: -34,017 contracts (typical hedging behavior)
Interpretation: Miners & physical traders are locking in prices, suggesting caution.
Other Reportables & Small Traders (Nonreportable)
Other Reportables (mid-size funds): Net long +83,063 (bullish)
Nonreportable (retail/small traders): Net long +33,096 (retail bullish)
Market Implications:
✅ Bullish Factors:
Managed Money (big speculators) holds largest net long position (41.4% of OI).
Retail & mid-size traders also net long, reinforcing upside momentum.
⚠️ Bearish Risks:
Swap Dealers (banks) hold extreme net short positions (69.7% of OI), which often acts as a contrarian indicator.
Producers are increasing short hedges, signaling potential supply-side pressure.
Price Outlook:
Short-Term (1-4 weeks): Likely bullish continuation as speculative longs dominate.
Medium-Term (3-6 months): Risk of correction if Swap Dealers’ massive shorts trigger profit-taking.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $2,500/oz (psychological level)
Support: $2,300/oz (recent swing low)
Trading Strategy:
Bullish traders: Can hold longs but watch for Swap Dealer positioning reversal.
Contrarian bears: May wait for Managed Money long liquidation before shorting.
Final Verdict: Gold remains in a bullish trend, but extreme positioning suggests caution ahead. 🚀⚠️
Japanese Yen Index Futures COT Report Analysis (5 Aug 2025)
Key Observations:
Market Sentiment & Positioning:
Dealers (Banks/Market Makers) are heavily short (199,843 contracts, 56.6% of Open Interest), suggesting institutional bearishness.
Asset Managers/Institutional Investors are strongly long (99,799 contracts, 29.6%), indicating bullish expectations.
Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds) are net short (60,091 vs. 38,441 long), reinforcing bearish speculative bets.
Other Reportables (likely large speculators) hold a massive long position (95,451 vs. only 1,651 short), showing extreme bullish conviction.
Changes in Positions (Week-over-Week):
Asset Managers reduced longs (-3,683 contracts) while increasing shorts (+19,738), signaling weakening confidence.
Leveraged Funds slightly increased longs (+1,441) but added more shorts (+12,213), reinforcing bearish momentum.
Other Reportables increased longs (+3,277), maintaining their bullish stance.
Open Interest & Market Activity:
Total Open Interest: 337,378 contracts (↑13,263 from prior week).
Nonreportable Positions (small traders) are nearly balanced (37,362 long vs. 32,027 short), showing no strong retail bias.
Interpretation & Implications:
Bearish Pressure: Dealers and leveraged funds dominate the short side, suggesting downward pressure on the Yen.
Bullish Divergence: Asset managers and "Other Reportables" hold strong long positions, indicating potential for a reversal if fundamentals shift.
Market Conflict: Institutional players (Asset Managers) are reducing longs, while speculative traders (Other Reportables) are adding, creating uncertainty.
Trading Outlook:
Short-term: Yen may remain weak due to strong dealer and hedge fund shorts.
Medium-term: If Asset Managers and Other Reportables continue accumulating longs, a bullish reversal could emerge.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: If "Other Reportables" keep adding longs, watch for a squeeze.
Support: If leveraged funds increase shorts further, Yen could decline further.
Conclusion:
The COT report shows a divided market, with strong institutional shorts but significant speculative longs. Traders should monitor shifts in dealer positioning and macroeconomic catalysts (BoJ policy, USD trends) for directional bias.
Analysis of Euro FX Index Futures (as of 5 Aug 2025)
Key Observations:
Open Interest (OI): 818,360 contracts (total market exposure).
Net Positioning:
Dealers (Market Makers & Banks) are heavily short (59.7% of OI), suggesting institutional hedging or bearish sentiment.
Asset Managers (Institutional Investors) are strongly long (58.8% of OI), indicating bullish expectations.
Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds) are net long (13.0% vs. 8.8% short), reinforcing bullish speculation.
Nonreportable Positions (Retail/Small Traders) are net long (11.3% vs. 5.5% short).
Implications:
Bullish vs. Bearish Divergence:
Asset Managers & Hedge Funds are betting on Euro strength.
Dealers (typically "smart money") are heavily short, possibly hedging against risk or expecting a downturn.
Potential Market Moves:
If Asset Managers continue accumulating long positions, the Euro could rally.
However, if Dealers aggressively cover shorts, a sharp reversal may occur.
Trading Outlook:
Short-term: Neutral-to-bullish (retail & funds support upside).
Medium-term: Watch for dealer positioning shifts—if shorts unwind, a bearish reversal could follow.
British Pound Index Futures COT Report Analysis (as of 5 Aug 2025)
Key Observations:
Open Interest & Market Activity
Open Interest (OI): 266,254 contracts (↑ 13,625 from prior week)
Total Traders: 102
Net Change: Significant increase in positions, suggesting heightened market participation.
Positioning by Trader Category
Asset Managers/Institutional:
Net Short: 115,629 (56.1% of OI)
Change: Increased shorts by 14,548 contracts
Dominant Force: Strong bearish sentiment from big players.
Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds, CTAs):
Net Long: 64,904 (31.5% of OI)
Change: Increased longs by 8,107 contracts
Contrarian Bet: Speculative funds are bullish against institutional shorts.
Dealers (Banks/Market Makers):
Net Long: 63,775 (30.9% of OI)
Change: Increased longs by 10,163 contracts
Implication: Banks are positioning for GBP strength.
Nonreportable Positions (Small Traders):
Nearly balanced (29,306 long vs. 28,646 short).
Long vs. Short Summary
Big Players (Asset Managers) are heavily short.
Hedge Funds & Dealers are leaning long.
Conflict: Institutional bearishness vs. speculative & dealer bullishness.
Market Implications:
Bearish Pressure: Asset managers’ large short positions could weigh on GBP.
Bullish Counterforce: Leveraged funds and dealers’ long positions may provide support.
Potential Volatility: Divergent positioning suggests a battleground for GBP direction.
Conclusion: Mixed signals—institutional bearishness vs. speculative/dealer bullishness—indicating potential volatility ahead.
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