8th Oct 2025 Bank Of New Zealand Cut OCR

 Here are some charts that show exchange rates reaction after Bank of New Zealand cut OCR from 3.00% to 2.50%.

 

 

 

 

BrainTrend System Chart 6th Oct 2025

 Some example of today's braintrend signal happened on some currency pairs.

 

 

Some of the exchange rates moves (Dolly System)

 

Dollar Index Future COT Report 23rd Sept 2025

 

 

 

Overview of the COT Report

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for USD Index futures (ICE Futures US, contract size: US Dollar Index × 1,000, CFTC Code #098662) as of September 23, 2025, provides a snapshot of positioning in the market. This data is released weekly by the CFTC and reflects positions as of the preceding Tuesday (September 23 in this case). Key headline figures:

• Total Open Interest (OI): 40,441 contracts (+1,915 week-over-week, or +5.0%, indicating increased market participation and potential building conviction).
• Total Traders: 117 (stable, suggesting steady involvement from major players).
• Market Sentiment Tilt: Speculative categories (Asset Managers, Leveraged Funds, Other Reportables, and Nonreportables) are collectively net short by approximately 18,383 contracts, while commercials (Dealers/Intermediaries) remain heavily net long by 18,675 contracts. This classic "commercials vs. specs" divergence often signals contrarian potential, with commercials (hedgers) positioned bullishly against specs (trend-followers betting on USD weakness).

The report shows a modest increase in OI driven by additions across most categories, but with mixed directional changes. Speculative shorts eased slightly in Leveraged Funds (less aggressive bearishness), but Asset Managers added to their short bias. Below, I'll break down the data, net positions, changes, and implications.

Positions by Trader Category

Here's a cleaned-up summary table of non-spreading positions (longs and shorts), spreading positions, and their share of total OI. Changes from the prior week (September 16, 2025) are noted where discernible from the report; positive changes in green, negative in red.

 

Category	Long Positions	Long % of OI	# Long Traders	Short Positions	Short % of OI	# Short Traders	Spread Positions	Spread % of OI	# Spread Traders	Net Position (Long - Short)
Dealer Intermediary (Commercials/Hedgers)	18,675	46.2%	5	0	0.0%	0	0	0.0%	0	+18,675
Change	-157	-	-	0	-	-	0	-	-	-157
Asset Manager/Institutional (Large Specs)	2,018	5.0%	9	11,166	27.6%	18	1,979	4.9%	4	-9,148
Change	+483	-	-	+1,183	-	-	N/A	-	-	-700
Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds/Specs)	11,700	28.9%	18	16,912	41.8%	30	879	2.2%	4	-5,212
Change	+1,327	-	-	+633	-	-	+23	-	-	+691
Other Reportables (Mixed/Others)	2,441	6.0%	16	5,725	14.2%	21	44	0.1%	0	-3,284
Change	+327	-	-	+138	-	-	-55	-	-	+189
Nonreportable Positions (Small Traders)	2,785	6.7%	N/A	3,736	9.2%	N/A	0	0.0%	N/A	-951
Change	-71	-	-	+320	-	-	0	-	-	-391
Totals	37,619	92.9%	48	37,539	92.8%	69	2,902	7.2%	8	Commercials +18,675; Specs -18,383

Notes:

• Percentages sum to ~100% across non-spread longs (~92.9%), non-spread shorts (~92.8%), and spreads (~7.2%), as spreads count toward both sides of the market.
• Minor discrepancies in totals (e.g., longs at 37,619 vs. shorts at 37,539) are due to rounding in the original report.
• Net positions exclude spreads, as they are market-neutral (each spread contract is simultaneously long and short).

Long vs. Short Breakdown (Visual Summary)

The report includes stacked bar charts emphasizing the long/short balance:

• Overall: Shorts dominate in speculative categories (red bars larger in Asset Mgr, Lev Funds, Other, Nonrep), while Dealers show a pure green long bar.
• Key Visual Insight: The speculative side's short skew is evident, but the OI surge suggests fresh capital entering—potentially specs doubling down or commercials defending their long bias.

Category	Long Stack (Green)	Short Stack (Red)
Dealer	100% Long	0% Short
Asset Mgr	~15% Long / 85% Short (incl. spread)
Lev Funds	~40% Long / 60% Short
Other Rep	~30% Long / 70% Short
Nonrep	~43% Long / 57% Short

Key Changes and Trends

• OI Expansion (+1,915): Driven primarily by Leveraged Funds (+1,327 long +633 short +23 spread = +1,983 net addition) and Asset Managers (+483 long +1,183 short = +1,666 net). This points to heightened interest, possibly tied to volatility in FX markets (e.g., Fed policy expectations or global risk-off flows around late September 2025).
• Directional Shifts:
  • Bullish Signals: Leveraged Funds reduced their net short bias (+691), hinting at some covering or profit-taking on prior dollar weakness. Other Reportables also trimmed shorts slightly (+189 net).
  • Bearish Signals: Asset Managers piled on shorts (+700 net deeper), aligning with institutional caution on USD strength. Nonreportables turned more bearish (-391 net), often a retail "crowd" indicator.
  • Commercial Stability: Dealers trimmed longs modestly (-157), but their massive net long remains a anchor—hedgers (e.g., exporters) likely locking in gains amid dollar rallies.
• Trader Concentration: Low trader counts in Dealers (5 longs) vs. higher in specs (e.g., 30 short in Lev Funds) suggest concentrated bets, increasing risk of sharp reversals if triggered.

Market Implications and Sentiment

• Speculative Bearishness on USD: Large specs (Asset Mgr + Lev Funds) hold a combined net short of ~14,360 contracts—the most bearish since mid-2025 peaks. This reflects bets on USD depreciation, possibly driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, softening US data, or euro/yen strength. Historically, extreme spec shorts in the Dollar Index have preceded bounces (e.g., Q4 2024 reversal from -20k net short).
• Commercial Counterweight: The Dealers' +18,675 net long is a strong bullish contrarian signal. Commercials often "win" in COT dynamics, as they hedge real flows (e.g., US import/export imbalances). If specs are overextended short, this setup favors a USD rebound—watch for OI to stabilize or specs to cover.
• Broader Context: With OI at multi-month highs, the market is "hot" but imbalanced. Volatility could spike if geopolitical events (e.g., US election noise) or data (e.g., October NFP) shifts sentiment. Short-term: Mildly bullish USD on spec fatigue. Medium-term: Monitor next week's report (Oct 1 data) for spread unwinds or further Lev Fund covering.
• Risks: Low liquidity in some categories (e.g., 0 Other spread traders) could amplify moves. Always cross-reference with spot DXY levels (~102-104 range in late Sept 2025) and correlated assets like 10Y yields. 

 

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The COT report is a lagging indicator, reflecting positions from the previous Tuesday.

17th Sept 2025 Position

 

EURAUD and EURCAD Exchange rates moves 16th Sept 2025

 This two currency pairs moves a lot after CAD CPI news released.

 

 EURCAD moves pass above 100% average range.

 

 

EURAUD moves pass above 125% average range. 

British Pound Future COT report As Of 9th Sept 2025

 

Executive Summary

The COT report reveals a market with a significant net short bias held by Asset Managers, which is being counterbalanced by net long positions from Leveraged Funds and Dealer/Intermediaries. The extremely high "Spread" positions, particularly from Leveraged Funds, indicate a market dominated by complex, multi-leg strategies rather than outright directional bets. This often leads to a state of equilibrium but can also be a precursor to increased volatility when these positions unwind.

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1. Key Overall Metrics

• Open Interest (322,879): This is the total number of open contracts. It's a high figure, indicating strong liquidity and significant interest in GBP futures.

• Total Traders (110): A manageable number of reporting entities, suggesting that positions might be concentrated among a few key players.

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2. Analysis by Trader Group

a) Dealer/Intermediaries

• Position: Net Long. (Long: 76,502 | Short: 25,168 | Spread: 77,236)

• Interpretation: Dealers are typically on the other side of their clients' trades. Their substantial net long position suggests that, in aggregate, their clients (like Asset Managers and Leveraged Funds) have been selling/shorting the British Pound. Dealers accumulate long positions to provide liquidity for these client sales. The massive spread position further underscores their role in facilitating complex trades and managing risk.

b) Asset Managers/Institutional

• Position: Overwhelmingly Net Short. (Long: 39,774 | Short: 110,081)

• Interpretation: This is the most decisive group. Institutional investors (e.g., pension funds, insurance companies) hold a very large net short position. This typically reflects a bearish fundamental outlook on the British Pound. They may be hedging against UK asset depreciation or speculating on GBP weakness due to factors like economic data, interest rate expectations, or geopolitical concerns.

c) Leveraged Funds (e.g., Hedge Funds, CTAs)

• Position: Net Long, but with a huge caveat. (Long: 57,669 | Short: 40,714 | Spread: 132,667)

• Interpretation: While they are net long on outright positions, their activity is dominated by an enormous spread position. This means they are primarily engaged in strategies like calendar spreads (buying one contract month, selling another) or cross-currency spreads. This is not a pure directional bet on GBP strength but rather a bet on the relationship between different contracts or currencies. It suggests they are seeking value or playing interest rate differentials rather than making a simple "up or down" prediction.

d) Other Reportables & Nonreportable Positions

• Other Reportables: A very small net short position, insignificant to the overall market.

• Nonreportable Positions (Small Speculators): Slightly net long (33,639 vs. 29,818). This group is often considered the "dumb money" and is frequently on the wrong side of major moves. Their net long position, while small, contrasts with the large institutional net short position, which is a notable divergence.

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3. Market Sentiment & Implications

• Primary Bearish Force: The clear and large net short position from Asset Managers/Institutional investors sets a fundamentally bearish tone for the GBP.

• Counteracting Forces: This selling pressure is being absorbed by:

  1. Dealers who are required to be counterparties.

  2. Leveraged Funds who are primarily trading spreads, not outright direction.

• Market State: The market appears to be in a tense balance. The massive spread positions act as a stabilizer for now. However, this balance is fragile.

• Risk of a Squeeze: If there is a sudden positive catalyst for the GBP (e.g., a hawkish shift from the Bank of England, better-than-expected economic data), the price could rise sharply. This would force:

  • Asset Managers to cover their large short positions (buying back GBP).

  • Leveraged Funds to unwind their complex spread trades, which could involve buying GBP.
    This collective buying could fuel a significant short squeeze, leading to a rapid and powerful upward move in the Pound.

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4. Changes from Previous Week (The "Total Changes" Row)

The second row under each position (e.g., 22,176 for Dealer Longs) shows the change from the previous week's report.

• Dealers: Increased their net long exposure. They added +22,176 longs and reduced their shorts by -29,000. This is a significant weekly shift towards a more bullish stance by this group, likely facilitating more client selling.

• Asset Managers: Moderately increased their net short exposure (+19,772 longs vs. +5,311 shorts). They are adding to their bearish bet.

• Leveraged Funds: Dramatically increased their spread positions by a massive +131,146 contracts. This is the most important change this week. It shows a huge influx into spread trading, further emphasizing that sophisticated speculators are avoiding outright directional bets in favor of more complex strategies.

• Small Speculators (Nonreportable): Increased their net long position (+12,174 longs vs. a tiny +311 shorts), reinforcing their slight bullish lean.

Conclusion

The GBP futures market is characterized by a clash between a fundamentally bearish institutional outlook and a market structure currently balanced by spread trades and dealer activity. The risk is asymmetrically tilted to the upside. While the prevailing sentiment is negative, the buildup of large short and spread positions creates the fuel for a potent rally if the current bearish narrative changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on the provided COT report. Market conditions are dynamic, and this data should be combined with current fundamental news and technical analysis for a complete trading view.