Gold COT Report (24 June 2025)

 

Gold COT Report Analysis (24 June 2025)

Key Observations:

1. Open Interest & Market Activity
• Total Open Interest: 434,958 contracts (↑ 6,236 from prior week)
• Number of Traders: 310 (indicating moderate institutional participation)
2. Positioning by Trader Category
• Swap Dealers (Market Makers & Hedgers)
• Net Short Dominance: 50.7% of open interest (229,728 contracts)
• Significant increase in shorts (+4,174 contracts).
• Longs decreased (-448), suggesting hedging pressure or bearish sentiment.
• Managed Money (Hedge Funds, CTAs)
• Bullish Bias: 37.7% long (163,829 contracts, ↑ 3,817)
• Shorts surged (+41,566), indicating profit-taking or new bearish bets.
• Still net long by a wide margin, but short-covering may be underway.
• Producers/Merchants (Commercial Hedgers)
• Net Short: 14.4% (62,734 contracts, ↑ 1,994)
• Typical hedging behavior, but long positions also rose (+11,253), possibly due to price stabilization.
• Other Reportables & Small Traders
• Other Reportables: 21.2% long (92,248 contracts), 5.1% short (22,372)
• Nonreportable (Retail/Small Traders): 12.6% long, 4.5% short – slightly bullish.
3. Net Positioning & Sentiment
• Large Speculators (Managed Money + Other Reportables): Strong net long (256,077 vs. 61,073 shorts).
• Commercials (Swap + Producers): Heavily net short (292,462 vs. 61,902 longs).
• Conflict: Big speculators remain bullish, while commercials (smart money) are heavily hedged/short.

Implications for Gold Prices:

• Short-term: Potential correction risk if Managed Money continues to reduce longs or increase shorts.
• Medium-term: If Swap Dealers unwind shorts aggressively, a bullish reversal could occur.
• Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: If gold breaks higher, Managed Money may add more longs.
• Support: A breakdown could trigger further selling from speculators.

Conclusion:

The COT report shows divergence between bullish speculators and bearish commercials. While the net long from funds supports gold, the heavy short positioning from Swap Dealers suggests caution. Monitor price action for a breakout or reversal signal.